Round 1 - Black Saturday

Oh those solar flares! This was indeed a black Saturday which could seal my fate for this seasons tipping comp. First Round picks are always very difficult cos we have little to go on. The pre-season form is no reliable indicator, and you certainly can't go on last year's form. Thus its little more than guesswork. So a score of over 50% would be considered necessary so to stay in contention for the very elusive prizes at the end, exceedingly elusive since Mother's death. Therefore a score of at least 5 is needed. This black Saturday was no help whatsoever.

Granted that the Giants win was unexpected even for a 1st Round game so unlikely anyone else would have picked them. I forget that it rains elsewhere in the country! LOL! Never rains here! LOL!..... quite a comeback in those last few minutes!!!

However the Sun's win was not so unexpected. I said I would not have been surprised to see them win, and well I wasn't.

So we have just one lonely little point from three matches so far. To stay on track for the at least 50% score I will need a win for the final game of this weekend. Carlton and Port Adelaide. We work on the probability theory that there be likely one or two "upsets" each round, that is, one or two matches where the team not expected to win will win. However there are always a few matches that are hard to pick, too evenly matched. Probably about four or five matches each round would come under that category. So need a 50% minimum score from the total of such matches, 2 from 4, or 3 from 5.

Well the Giant's win fulfilled one of the "upsets", while the Sun's win fulfilled one of the "hard to pick" matches. That one I missed. Tomorrow's match - Carlton and Port Adelaide is the 2nd of such matches, hard to pick. It's a home match for Carlton, so perhaps should go with them. Indeed it seems to be the contention of the majority of tipsters. Given that we missed the Sun's win, this makes it more probable that we may be successful in our tips for Carlton. It's like you toss a coin and you get a tails, so more likely to get a head on the next toss. However, a tail still could occur, indeed it is not so rare. And so I be sweating on the Carlton result. Carlton wins, my tipping remains on track. Carlton loses, and I will need 4 points from the remaining 5 matches to keep my tipping on track - very unlikely!!!!!!

So while my life may be improving in significant other areas, it remains to be seen if the football results will improve with it. It seems certain it will NOT be the Maggies year, indeed a very dry year for the Maggies, gonna be one of their down years, may not even make the finals. However there is still hope for the tipping however slim it appears to be at this point in time..... a 1-3 results right now.